What would have happened anyway? Population data source considerations when estimating background incident rates of adverse events following immunisation to inform vaccine safety.

INTRODUCTION: Understanding background incident rates of adverse events following immunisation (AEFI) is essential to rapidly detect, evaluate, respond to, and communicate about vaccine safety concerns, especially for new vaccines. Creating estimates based on geographic specific population level data is increasingly important, as new AEFI presentations will be subject to the same local influences of population demography, exposures, health system variations and level of health care sought. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective cohort analysis of hospital admissions, emergency department presentations and general practice consultations from 2015 to 2019-before introduction of COVID-19, Mpox or Shingrix vaccination-to estimate background incident rates for 37 conditions considered potential AEFI of special interest (AESI). Background incident rates per 100,000 population were calculated and presented as cases expected to occur coincidentally 1 day, 1 week and 6 weeks post-vaccination, by life-stage age-groups and presenting healthcare setting. We then assessed the proportional contribution of each data source to inform each AESI background rate estimate. RESULTS: 16,437,156 episodes of the 37 AESI were identified. Hospital admissions predominantly informed 19 (51%) of AESI, including exclusively ADEM and CVST; 8 AESI (22%) by primary care, and 10 (27%) a mix. Four AESI (allergic urticaria, Bell's palsy, erythema multiform and sudden death) were better informed by emergency presentations than admissions, but conversely 11 AESI (30%) were not captured in ICD-10 coded emergency presentations at all. CONCLUSIONS: Emergent safety concerns are inevitable in population-wide implementation of new vaccines, therefore understanding local background rates aids both safety signal detection as well as maintaining public confidence in vaccination. Hospital and primary care data sources can be interrogated to inform expected background incident rates of adverse events that may occur following vaccination. However, it is necessary to understand which data-source provides best intelligence according to nature of condition and presenting healthcare setting.

Health economic evaluations of sepsis interventions in critically ill adult patients: a systematic review.

BACKGROUND: Sepsis is a global health priority. Interventions to reduce the burden of sepsis need to be both effective and cost-effective. We performed a systematic review of the literature on health economic evaluations of sepsis treatments in critically ill adult patients and summarised the evidence for cost-effectiveness. METHODS: We systematically searched MEDLINE, Embase, and the Cochrane Library using thesaurus (e.g. MeSH) and free-text terms related to sepsis and economic evaluations. We included all articles that reported, in any language, an economic evaluation of an intervention for the management of sepsis in critically ill adult patients. Data extracted included study details, intervention details, economic evaluation methodology, and outcomes. Included studies were appraised for reporting quality using the Consolidated Health Economic Evaluation Reporting Standards (CHEERS) checklist. RESULTS: We identified 50 records representing 46 economic evaluations for a variety of interventions including antibiotics (n = 5), fluid therapy (n = 2), early goal-directed therapy and other resuscitation protocols (n = 8), immunoglobulins (n = 2), and interventions no longer in clinical use such as monoclonal antibodies (n = 7) and drotrecogin alfa (n = 13). Twelve (26%) evaluations were of excellent reporting quality. Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) ranged from dominant (lower costs and higher effectiveness) for early goal-directed therapy, albumin, and a multifaceted sepsis education program to dominated (higher costs and lower effectiveness) for polymerase chain reaction assays (LightCycler SeptiFast testing MGRADE®, SepsiTest™, and IRIDICA BAC BSI assay). ICERs varied widely across evaluations, particularly in subgroup analyses. CONCLUSIONS: There is wide variation in the cost-effectiveness of sepsis interventions. There remain important gaps in the literature, with no economic evaluations identified for several interventions routinely used in sepsis. Given the high economic and social burden of sepsis, high-quality economic evaluations are needed to increase our understanding of the cost-effectiveness of these interventions in routine clinical practice and to inform decision makers. TRIAL REGISTRATION: PROSPERO CRD42018095980.

In situ source levels of mulloway (Argyrosomus japonicus) calls.

Mulloway (Argyrosomus japonicus) in Mosman Bay, Western Australia produce three call categories associated with spawning behavior. The determination of call source levels and their contribution to overall recorded sound pressure levels is a significant step towards estimating numbers of calling fish within the detection range of a hydrophone. The source levels and ambient noise also provide significant information on the impacts anthropogenic activity may have on the detection of A. japonicus calls. An array of four hydrophones was deployed to record and locate individual fish from call arrival-time differences. Successive A. japonicus calls produced samples at various ranges between 1 and 100 m from one of the array hydrophones. The three-dimensional localization of calls, together with removal of ambient noise, allowed the determination of source levels for each call category using observed trends in propagation losses and interference. Mean source levels (at 1 m from the hydrophone) of the three call categories were calculated as 163 ± 16 dB re 1 µPa for Category 1 calls (short call of 2-5 pulses); 172 ± 4 dB re 1 µPa for Category 2 calls (long calls of 11-32 pulses); and 157 ± 5 dB re 1 µPa for Category 3 calls (series of successive calls of 1-4 pulses, increasing in call rate).

A pilot study of CODOX-M/IVAC in primary refractory or relapsed high-grade non-Hodgkin's lymphoma. A Scotland and Newcastle Lymphoma Group Study.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: The prognosis in patients with primary refractory or relapsed high grade non-Hodgkin's lymphoma (NHL) is very poor--the 5-year survival being generally reported at 10%. DESIGN AND METHODS: Multiple salvage regimens have been investigated and, while response rates of 50-80% have been noted in selected patients, the long-term prognosis remains poor. Following the encouraging results in high risk Burkitt's and Burkitt-like lymphoma using the CODOX-M and IVAC protocols, we performed a pilot study using a similar regimen in patients with primary refractory or relapsed high grade NHL. RESULTS: The regimens were modified by a reduction in the intensity of intrathecal therapy. It was planned to mobilize peripheral blood stem cells following the IVAC cycle for use in subsequent autologous peripheral blood stem cell transplantation in chemosensitive patients. The initial plan was to recruit 50 patients, but the study was closed after 8 due to excessive toxicity. INTERPRETATION AND CONCLUSIONS: We conclude that the CODOX-M/IVAC regimen is too toxic for this group of patients and does not result in better response rates than those to currently available salvage regimens.